Nike Stock (NKE): The Direct-Sales Reversal, Inventory and 24 Years of Raises

Michael Whitman · Trading since 2017, full-time since 2020 · YouTube creator, 137K subscribers · Published 2026-11-07

In November 2021 Nike stock, ticker NKE on the New York Stock Exchange, closed at a record $177.51. On October 2, 2026 it closed at $33.87, its lowest close since September 2013. Anyone searching for the stock today is really asking what happened in between, and whether the dividend that now yields over 4% is safe.

The filings tell the story in three lines: where Nike sells its shoes, how much stock it carries, and how much cash it hands back. Each one turned between 2022 and 2026. This page rebuilds all three, along with the ratios, the CEO change and every results day since 2008.

NKE at a glance: 78.3% below the 2021 record

Price is the November 6, 2026 close. Nike’s fiscal year ends May 31, so fiscal 2026 ran from June 2025 to May 2026. Earnings and equity are from the 10-Q for the quarter ended August 31, 2026 (filed October 2) and the fiscal 2026 10-K.

From the last close of 2025 ($63.71) to November 6 the stock fell 39.43%, while the S&P 500 rose 7.76%. The 52-week high close was $67.78 on December 15, 2025. From the November 5, 2021 record to the October 2026 low the fall was 80.9%, and on November 6 the price was still 78.3% below the record.

How it works: Nike’s wholesale, NIKE Direct and Converse

Nike reports NIKE Brand revenue through two channels. Wholesale is sales to retailers that resell the product. NIKE Direct is Nike’s own stores and its digital apps and website. Converse is reported as a separate segment.

In the quarter ended August 31, 2026, NIKE, Inc. revenue was $11.21 billion, down 4.3% from $11.72 billion a year earlier. NIKE Brand wholesale brought in $6.80 billion and NIKE Direct $4.14 billion; the release put the wholesale decline at 1% and the Direct decline at 8%, with NIKE Brand Digital down 13%. Gross margin was 42.8%, against 42.2% a year earlier, and diluted EPS was $0.48.

Elliott Hill replaces John Donahoe as CEO

A change at the top. On September 19, 2024, after the close, Nike announced that Elliott Hill, a former Nike executive, would become CEO on October 14, 2024, replacing John Donahoe. The stock rose 6.84% the next day. From the last close before Hill started ($82.15 on October 11, 2024) to November 6, 2026 it fell 53.0%. A new chief financial officer, David Denton, took over on August 16, 2026.

Class A shares and Swoosh, LLC

Two classes of stock. NKE is the Class B share. The Class A shares, 281,387,752 of them or 18.9% of the total, are not traded and convert one for one into Class B. By the 10-K, Class A holders elect three-quarters of the board (rounded down to a whole number of seats), and Swoosh, LLC owned about 79% of the Class A stock at June 30, 2026.

The original data: the NIKE Direct build-up and reversal

NIKE Direct’s share of NIKE Brand revenue, fiscal 2019 to 2026. Taken from the sales-channel split in each 10-K as first reported; Converse and small “other” sales are left out of both sides.

• The build-up: from fiscal 2019 to fiscal 2024 NIKE Direct revenue grew 83.1% while wholesale grew 9.2%.
• The reversal: NIKE Direct revenue fell 17.7% from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2026. In fiscal 2026 alone wholesale rose 6.1% and NIKE Direct fell 5.7%.
• Total revenue peaked at $51.36 billion in fiscal 2024 and was 9.7% lower in fiscal 2026; net income fell 45.5% over the same two years, from $5.70 billion to $3.11 billion.

Inventory at each quarter end, May 2017 to August 2026 (38 quarter ends).

• The peak: $9.66 billion on August 31, 2022, 41.0% above the $6.85 billion of May 31, 2021.
• Since then: $7.85 billion on August 31, 2026, 18.8% below the peak and 3.3% below a year earlier.

Where the cash went. Nike spent $37.94 billion buying back its own stock from fiscal 2015 to fiscal 2025, including $5.48 billion in fiscal 2023. In fiscal 2026 it spent $0.146 billion, and none in the August 2026 quarter. Dividends kept rising: $2.41 billion in fiscal 2026, which is 77.4% of that year’s $3.11 billion net income, against 38.1% in fiscal 2024. The stock buybacks and payout ratio pages explain both measures.

The three datasets are free to download: channel mix and inventory, inventory by quarter and earnings-day moves. Anyone may reuse them with a credit and a link; the terms are in our data license.

The dividend record: 24 years of raises, one short of an Aristocrat

By ex-dividend date, Nike’s quarterly rate has been higher than the year before in every calendar year from 2002 to 2025: 24 years in a row. The current rate, $0.41 a share, first went ex-dividend on December 1, 2025. Nike’s own December 18, 2025 results release also counts 24 consecutive years of increases.

• The raises are getting smaller. The step to $0.41 was 2.5%, after 8.1% (to $0.40) and 8.8% (to $0.37) in the two years before.
• Per share since 2015: $12.84 in dividends by ex-date, adjusted for the 2015 two-for-one split.
• Not an Aristocrat. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index needs at least 25 years of raises, so 24 falls one short; our dividend aristocrats page lists the rules. The dividend growth page shows how a rising payout compounds.

A worked example: rebuilding Nike’s 18.5x

All inputs are in the 10-Q filed October 2, 2026, the fiscal 2026 10-K and Nike’s releases, except the share price.

1. Trailing earnings. Diluted EPS was $0.48 for the August 2026 quarter, $2.10 for fiscal 2026 and $0.49 for the August 2025 quarter. Last twelve months = $0.48 + $2.10 − $0.49 = $2.09.
2. P/E. $38.59 ÷ $2.09 = 18.5. The P/E ratio page explains the sum.
3. The one-off inside it. In the May 2026 quarter Nike recorded a $986 million benefit for the expected recovery of tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, after the Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that those tariffs were unauthorized. Nike’s release put the effect at $0.52 a share. Without it, trailing EPS is $1.57 and the P/E is 24.6.
4. Market value. 281,387,752 Class A plus 1,203,921,077 Class B shares = 1,485,308,829, and × $38.59 = $57.32 billion.
5. Sales and book. Trailing revenue is $11.21 billion + $46.40 billion − $11.72 billion = $45.89 billion, so the price is 1.25 times sales. Equity of $15.22 billion is $10.25 a share, or 3.77 times book; the price-to-book page covers that ratio.
6. Yield. $0.41 × 4 = $1.64 a year; $1.64 ÷ $38.59 = 4.25%.

Earnings days: Nike’s two worst days since 2008

Nike files its results after the 4 p.m. New York close, so we measured each from that day’s close to the next. Our count starts with the September 2008 release, because the earlier plain-text filings were not in our download, and runs to October 2026: 73 releases. Conference-call transcripts filed under the same item, and a preliminary update on June 23, 2026, are left out.

• The median move was 5.12%, against 0.89% on the other 4,485 trading days, about 5.7 times as large.
• 37 of the 73 moved 5% or more and 13 moved 10% or more; only 1.4% of other days moved 5% or more.
• Direction: 38 up and 35 down (52.1% up, against 50.6% on other days), within chance (two-sided binomial p = 0.82).
• Largest: −19.98% on June 28, 2024, −15.51% on April 1, 2026 and −12.81% on September 30, 2022; the biggest rises were +15.53% on June 25, 2021, +15.19% on June 27, 2025 and +12.23% on September 26, 2014. The two worst days since 2008 were both results days.
• Under Hill: eight releases from December 2024 to October 2026 moved −0.21%, −5.46%, +15.19%, +6.41%, −10.54%, −15.51%, +4.90% and −3.64%: three up, five down.

When it fails: a famous brand is not a floor

A famous brand is not a floor. The stock lost four-fifths of its value from the 2021 record to the 2026 low while Nike stayed one of the best-known brands in the world. The drawdown page explains how a fall like that is measured.

A high yield can come from a falling price. The 4.25% yield is high mostly because the price fell; the $0.41 dividend is only 2.5% above the year before. With dividends at 77.4% of fiscal 2026 net income, earnings have less room to slip before the payout outgrows them. The dividend yield page shows why a yield rises when a price falls.

One-off items flatter the multiple. The tariff refund is real money, but Nike booked it once. By the 10-K it largely offset the IEEPA tariffs Nike had recorded during fiscal 2026, so read the 18.5x and the 24.6x together.

Strategy changes take years to show. The NIKE Direct push took five fiscal years to build and at least two to unwind, and inventory was still above its May 2021 level four years after the 2022 peak. A new plan announced in October 2026, which Nike calls Pace, will not show up in these numbers for some time.

Trade policy reaches the cost line. By the 10-K, nearly all Nike products are made outside the US by contract manufacturers, and factories in Vietnam made about 52% of NIKE Brand footwear in fiscal 2026. That is why a court ruling on tariffs moved its earnings by $0.52 a share. The tariffs page covers how import duties reach a company’s margins.

Questions people ask

Does Nike pay a dividend?

Yes, $0.41 a share a quarter, $1.64 a year, a 4.25% yield at $38.59. The rate has risen every calendar year from 2002 to 2025.

Why did Nike stock fall so much?

The filings show revenue down 9.7% from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2026, net income down 45.5%, NIKE Direct revenue down 17.7% as Nike turned back toward wholesale, and a stock that had been priced at a record in 2021. Two of the three worst days since 2008, June 28, 2024 and April 1, 2026, were results days.

Who is Nike’s CEO?

Elliott Hill, since October 14, 2024, by Nike’s 8-K of September 19, 2024. He replaced John Donahoe.

What is Nike’s market cap?

$57.32 billion at the November 6, 2026 close, counting both share classes from the 10-Q cover dated September 28. The market cap page explains the sum.

Is Nike a Dividend Aristocrat?

Not by our count. It has 24 straight years of raises; the index rule is 25.

Related

The trailing figures above rest on earnings per share. For how hard NKE moves against the market, see beta and volatility. If you hold Nike through a consumer or dividend fund, sector funds explains what that concentration means for the rest of a portfolio.

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.