Trump's Diesel Deal With Putin, Explained
The Russian diesel deal is a promise, posted by Donald Trump on 9 October 2026, that Russia will supply up to 4.8 million metric tons of diesel to the US and world markets. The same day the US Treasury issued General License 135, which allows deals in Russian diesel until 7 April 2027.
The Russian diesel deal that President Donald Trump announced on 9 October 2026 has no signed text that anyone has published. What exists is his social media post, a Treasury license that makes Russian diesel legal to buy for six months, and a statement from Moscow that it is lifting its own export ban early.
This page sets out what was announced and by whom, what the license allows and what it leaves out, how much fuel the promised amounts really are, and what the price data shows. It reports what the sources say and takes no side on whether the deal was wise.
What Trump and Putin announced
The post. After a phone call with Vladimir Putin on Friday 9 October 2026, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Russia would “immediately supply over 300,000 Tons” of diesel to the American and global market. He added 500,000 tons in November, 1,000,000 tons “immediately thereafter” and a further 3,000,000 tons later, depending on the condition of Russia’s refineries.
The Associated Press, Reuters and RFD-TV, which printed the post in full, all report the same four amounts, which add up to 4.8 million tons.
Why he said he did it. Trump wrote that “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority,” a line quoted by both AP and Reuters.
What Moscow said. According to AP, a Kremlin statement said Russia “confirmed its readiness” to supply oil and oil products to the American and global markets. Xinhua’s report of the same statement gives no amounts either. The next day, Russia’s government said it had started lifting its diesel export restrictions early, as Interfax and investingLive reported, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying the home market would stay fully supplied.
What is still missing. The White House did not say who would pay for the fuel or when it would arrive, AP reported. The law firm Clyde & Co wrote on 13 October that the details had not been published in any official form or confirmed by Russia.
How it works: the Treasury license
General License 135. On 9 October 2026 the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a license titled “Authorizing Transactions Related to the Sale, Delivery, Offloading, and Importation of Diesel Fuel of Russian Federation Origin.” Clyde & Co and Ship & Bunker both report that it covers imports into the US and lasts until 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on 7 April 2027, about six months.
What it does not allow. The license does not allow debits to US bank accounts held by Russia’s central bank, its National Wealth Fund or its Ministry of Finance, as paragraph (b) of the license itself states and Clyde & Co confirms. It covers diesel only; gasoline and crude oil are not in it.
Other bans stay. The European Union and the United Kingdom have not changed their own bans on Russian diesel, Clyde & Co and Ship & Bunker both note. A European or British shipowner, bank or insurer still cannot help move the fuel unless the trade fits the price cap.
A clash with a 2022 law. The US has not imported Russian oil or gas since 2022, AP reports, citing the Energy Information Administration. The Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, passed in April 2022, bans those imports unless the president certifies to Congress that Russia has met set conditions, Clyde & Co explains. A bipartisan group of senators said the license runs directly counter to that law, Fox News reported, and Clyde & Co says it may face a legal challenge.
A new sanctions law, too. The move came about a month after Trump signed a Russia sanctions law aimed at the oil and gas money that pays for the war in Ukraine. AP and Clyde & Co both say the law directs new sanctions and tariffs on Russia’s energy trade; Clyde & Co adds that it leaves the president wide discretion over how hard to apply them.
Why diesel costs so much
The US and Israel launched the war with Iran on 28 February 2026, Reuters reports, and Reuters and AP both tie the jump in fuel prices to it. Russia, once a big diesel seller, had banned diesel exports since July after Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries, according to AP and Ship & Bunker.
AAA, the motor club, put the national average for diesel at about $3.76 a gallon just before the war, as reported by AP and by Business Today, citing a Brown University tracker. AAA’s own page lists the record at $6.5276 on 22 September 2026.
On the day of the deal its average was $6.28, AP and Reuters both reported, and AAA’s page read on 16 October gives a week-ago figure of $6.2785. That is a rise of about 67% from before the war by our arithmetic; Reuters rounds it to 70%.
The original data
We downloaded the Energy Information Administration’s weekly retail price series, the government survey taken each Monday, and drew diesel and regular gasoline from January 2025 to 12 October 2026.
In EIA’s survey, diesel was $3.809 a gallon in the week of 23 February 2026, the last reading before the war. It reached $6.529 in the week of 21 September, the highest weekly price in the series since it began in 1994; the previous high was $5.810 in June 2022. On 12 October it was $6.179, up 62.2% from before the war. Regular gasoline rose from $2.937 to $4.331 over the same weeks, up 47.5%.
EIA and AAA use different surveys, so their prices differ by a few cents. Both show the same path: a record in the third week of September and only a small easing since.
The second chart converts Trump’s four amounts into days of US use. We used 7.45 barrels per metric ton, the S&P Global Platts factor that Political.org and Economies.com both apply. For use, we took EIA’s figure for US product supplied of distillate fuel oil, the category that holds diesel and heating oil, averaged over the 52 weeks to 9 October 2026: about 3.81 million barrels a day.
All four steps come to about 35.8 million barrels, or 9.4 days of US use by this measure. With EIA’s single week to 2 October, 3.65 million barrels a day, the total is 9.8 days. Political.org and Raw Story, using EIA and BBC figures, both put it at about 10 days. The first 300,000 tons is 0.6 days.
A worked example: what a few cents means
Take a hypothetical delivery business that buys 100 gallons of diesel a week, priced at the EIA weekly average.
- Before the war. 100 gallons at $3.809 cost $380.90.
- On 12 October 2026. 100 gallons at $6.179 cost $617.90.
- The difference. $237.00 more each week for the same fuel.
- The Goldman Sachs estimate. Goldman Sachs estimated that the October and November shipments would lower wholesale diesel by $1 to $2 a barrel, as Political.org, Economies.com and Crux Investor all report. A barrel holds 42 gallons, so that is about 2.4 to 4.8 cents a gallon.
- On this bill. Even if all of the higher figure reached the pump, it would save about $4.76 a week, against the $237.00 rise.
Wholesale prices do not pass to the pump one for one, and the estimate covers only the first two shipments, so treat this as a sense of scale.
The case each side makes
For the deal. Supporters argue that diesel is traded worldwide, so fuel added anywhere eases the market. Diesel futures fell almost 5% to $4.64 a gallon after the news, Reuters reported; the Financial Times, cited by Ship & Bunker, put the fall at about 4.5%. The license is narrow: it covers diesel only and ends in April 2027.
Russia’s oil money was already falling. Russia’s own Finance Ministry says its oil and gas budget revenue fell 17.2% from a year earlier to 5.47 trillion rubles in January to September 2026, as Xinhua and Ukrainska Pravda both reported, about $64 billion to $66 billion at their exchange rates.
Against the deal. The amounts are small next to US use, as the chart above shows, and analysts quoted by AP and Reuters said the deal was unlikely to bring a lasting fall in prices. Reuters said the sales could give Moscow billions of dollars in revenue while the war in Ukraine goes on, and AP wrote on 12 October that the revenue would help Moscow refill its war funds. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it a weak decision by strong partners, in wording reported by both AP and Reuters.
Criticism from both parties. Democratic senators including Richard Blumenthal criticized the deal, AP reported, and Republican Representative Don Bacon criticized it on X, Reuters and Fox News reported; Reuters quoted him saying the sanctions Congress had just passed should be used, not lifted. Reuters and AP both note that the 3 November midterm elections were weeks away when it was announced.
What it means for you
If you drive a gas car. The license covers diesel, not gasoline. EIA’s regular gasoline price was $4.331 on 12 October, and AAA’s average on 16 October was $4.3271.
If diesel is part of your costs. Truckers, farmers, small firms with vans and homes heated with oil feel the price directly. Track the crude oil market and the weekly EIA diesel price, collected every Monday, rather than the size of an announced deal.
In the shops. Diesel moves freight, and AP reported in September that higher costs reach shoppers slowly, often first in items that must stay refrigerated on the way to the store. A fall works the same way in reverse, so a cheaper week for diesel does not mean cheaper groceries that week.
In the inflation figures. The consumer price index for September 2026 rose 3.7% from a year earlier, and its fuel oil index rose 74.2%, in the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of 14 October and the bureau’s own data series. Our page on what inflation does to savings shows how a price rise like this one compounds over the years.
For your savings plan. The real return calculator shows what a savings rate earns after prices rise.
When it fails: limits of these figures
The amounts are one man’s post. Every tonnage figure comes from Trump’s post; Russia has not published a contract, and the later 3 million tons depends on refineries that Ukraine keeps striking.
Days of use depend on the measure. EIA’s distillate figure includes heating oil and other distillates as well as road diesel, and it moves a lot from week to week. A narrower measure of road diesel alone would make each shipment last longer; a single busy week would make it shorter.
Conversions are approximate. A metric ton of diesel is about 7.45 barrels, but the exact figure depends on the fuel’s density.
Two surveys, two prices. AAA and EIA sample different stations on different days, so a “before the war” price of $3.76 and one of $3.81 can both be right.
An estimate is not a result. The Goldman Sachs figure is a forecast of wholesale prices, not a measured change at the pump, and the license itself could be withdrawn or challenged in court.
Related
Diesel is refined from crude, so the crude oil page is the place to start on how oil prices are set. To see how fuel feeds the monthly price figures, read the consumer price index page, and for the bigger picture of rising prices and savings, see inflation.
If diesel is a big line in your budget, through a truck, a van, a farm or heating oil, check the weekly government price instead of reacting to deal headlines. Plan on today’s price until the weekly number actually moves.
— Michael Whitman
This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.