WhitmanTrading

Current Assets: Cash, Then Promises, Then Stock

Current assets are the items a company expects to convert into cash within twelve months, listed in order of liquidity: cash first, then receivables, then inventory. The order matters because the three convert at very different speeds and with very different certainty.

How it works

A labelled breakdown diagram adding cash, receivables and inventory to give current assets. The headline reads: Assets expected to become cash within a year.
Assets expected to become cash within a year. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Anything the company expects to turn into cash within twelve months. Cash itself, short-term investments, amounts customers owe, and inventory held for sale.

A breakdown diagram listing cash convertible immediately, receivables in weeks and inventory in months. The headline reads: They are listed in order of how quickly they convert.
They are listed in order of how quickly they convert. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

The order on the page is deliberate: most liquid first. Cash is cash. A receivable is money someone has agreed to pay. Inventory has to be sold first, and at a price nobody has committed to.

That ordering is the most useful thing on the page, because it means the position of an item tells you how much to trust it.

The two ratios

A breakdown diagram subtracting current liabilities from current assets to give working capital. The headline reads: Minus current liabilities they are working capital.
Minus current liabilities they are working capital. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Current assets minus current liabilities is working capital, the absolute version of the twelve-month question.

A breakdown diagram dividing current assets by current liabilities to give a current ratio of one point five. The headline reads: Divided by them they are the current ratio.
Divided by them they are the current ratio. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Divided rather than subtracted, it is the current ratio — the same question expressed as a multiple, so it compares across companies of different sizes.

A breakdown diagram dividing current assets less inventory by current liabilities to give a quick ratio of zero point nine. The headline reads: Take inventory out and it is the quick ratio.
Take inventory out and it is the quick ratio. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Remove inventory and you have the quick ratio, which exists precisely because inventory is the item least likely to convert on schedule. A company with a comfortable current ratio and a quick ratio below one is relying on selling stock to meet next year’s obligations.

Reading both together takes ten seconds and settles most questions the current ratio raises on its own.

The two items that go wrong

A breakdown diagram showing inventory at cost reduced by a write-down to give realisable value. The headline reads: Inventory is the least reliable item in the group.
Inventory is the least reliable item in the group. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Inventory is carried at the lower of cost and net realisable value, which sounds prudent and depends entirely on the company’s estimate of what it can sell things for. Obsolete stock, fashion, technology and perishables are all carried at a number somebody chose.

A breakdown diagram showing receivables with the portion more than ninety days old highlighted. The headline reads: And a receivable is a promise, not a payment.
And a receivable is a promise, not a payment. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

A receivable is a customer’s promise. The ageing profile — how much is 30, 60, 90 days old — is disclosed and is far more informative than the total.

A breakdown diagram comparing days sales outstanding between two years and the deterioration between them. The headline reads: Days sales outstanding is the number to track.
Days sales outstanding is the number to track. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Days sales outstanding — receivables divided by daily revenue — turns that into one comparable number. Rising days means the company is waiting longer to be paid, which happens when customers are struggling or when the company has loosened terms to make sales.

Both explanations are the same signal, and both arrive before the revenue line notices.

In practice: the pattern worth watching

A breakdown diagram comparing receivables growth of thirty-four percent against revenue growth of eight percent. The headline reads: Receivables growing faster than revenue is a warning.
Receivables growing faster than revenue is a warning. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Receivables growing faster than revenue means sales are being recognised that have not been collected. Sometimes that is timing. Sometimes it is a company shipping product to distributors it will take back later. The accounts cannot distinguish them, and the ratio flags both.

The same test applies to inventory. Stock growing faster than sales is production outrunning demand, and it flatters this period’s cost of goods sold while creating the risk of a write-down later.

A breakdown diagram showing a typical bar's range with the round-trip trading cost subtracted. The headline reads: And trading the shares costs two percent of a bar.
And trading the shares costs two percent of a bar. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

And acting on any of it in the market costs 2% of a median bar’s range per round trip on this site’s shared price history.

A worked example makes the quick ratio argument concrete. Current assets of 900 against current liabilities of 600 gives a current ratio of 1.5, which reads as comfortable. Take out inventory of 380 and the quick ratio is 0.87 — meaning that without selling stock, the company cannot cover a year of obligations from cash and receivables.

Now suppose inventory has been growing 30% a year while revenue grew 8%. The current ratio has been improving throughout, because inventory is a current asset. The ratio that looks like strengthening liquidity is recording stock the company has not managed to sell — and the quick ratio, which excludes it, has been falling the whole time.

What current assets are not

They are not cash. Only the first line is.

They are not equally reliable. The order on the page is the ranking.

They are not a solvency measure alone. They only mean something against current liabilities.

And they are not free. Working capital is money tied up, and a growing balance is cash the business is not using for anything else.

When it fails

A breakdown diagram showing a high current ratio composed largely of inventory. The headline reads: A high current ratio can be unsold stock.
A high current ratio can be unsold stock. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

A comfortable current ratio made of inventory is the classic false reassurance. The ratio says the company can cover a year of obligations; the composition says it can do so only by selling stock that has not sold yet.

The second failure is ignoring the ageing profile. A receivables total that is flat while the 90-day bucket doubles is deteriorating, and the total does not show it.

A third is treating a rising working capital balance as strength. It is cash the company has tied up in customers and stock rather than deployed.

A fourth is comparing ratios across industries. A supermarket runs on negative working capital by design; a shipbuilder cannot.

And a fifth is missing a write-down that has not happened yet. Inventory carried at cost that cannot be sold at cost is an asset the page has not corrected.

The original data

Of the 31,760 trading and investing videos in this site’s corpus, 3 have “balance sheet” in the title, at a median of 23,862 views. “Cash flow” returns 17 at a median of 67,134. “Income statement”, “revenue” and “gross profit” each return 0. For comparison, the relative strength index (“RSI”) returns 844 at a median of 3,907. The counts are in research/corpus-coverage.json, produced by site/measure_corpus.py.

A breakdown diagram contrasting a large inventory balance with a small cash balance. The headline reads: Current ratio two point four, mostly inventory. Safe?
Current ratio two point four, mostly inventory. Safe? Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Days sales outstanding is the specific thing worth taking from this page, and it is computable from two numbers a company already publishes. Receivables divided by revenue, times 365. Track it for five years against revenue growth. A company whose receivables are ageing while revenue is flat is telling you something about its customers or its sales terms a year before the income statement does — and it is exactly the kind of check that almost nothing in the available material suggests making.

Balance sheet is the page these sit on. Current liabilities is the other half of every ratio here. And assets covers the full total this is a part of.

What I actually do

Days sales outstanding is the single ratio I would keep if I could only keep one from the balance sheet. It rises before revenue falls, it is hard to disguise, and it is a number the company reports without meaning to say anything.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.