WhitmanTrading

Liabilities: The Schedule Beats the Total

Liabilities are the obligations a company owes to other parties, listed opposite its assets on the balance sheet. Only part of the total is interest-bearing debt, and the maturity schedule disclosed in the notes decides how dangerous any given total actually is.

How it works

A labelled breakdown diagram adding current liabilities and long-term liabilities to give total liabilities. The headline reads: What the company owes to somebody else.
What the company owes to somebody else. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Everything the company owes, split by when it falls due: within twelve months, and beyond.

A breakdown diagram showing assets funded partly by liabilities and partly by equity. The headline reads: They fund assets alongside the owners.
They fund assets alongside the owners. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

They fund the asset base alongside the owners. Every asset was paid for by someone, and the balance sheet identity is simply the arithmetic of who.

Not all of it is debt

A breakdown diagram splitting liabilities into interest-bearing debt and payables and accruals. The headline reads: Not all of them are debt, and the difference matters.
Not all of them are debt, and the difference matters. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

A large total liabilities figure is not automatically a large debt figure. Interest-bearing borrowings are one component; amounts owed to suppliers, accrued wages, tax payable and deferred revenue are all liabilities and none of them carries interest.

A breakdown diagram showing payables with no interest charged on them. The headline reads: Payables are free finance from suppliers.
Payables are free finance from suppliers. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Payables are interest-free funding. A company that collects from customers before paying suppliers is being financed by its own trading cycle, and a large payables balance in that context is a strength rather than a risk.

A breakdown diagram showing cash received matched by an obligation to deliver a service. The headline reads: Deferred revenue is a liability that becomes revenue.
Deferred revenue is a liability that becomes revenue. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Deferred revenue is the friendliest liability there is. The customer has already paid; what the company owes is delivery, not money. It settles by doing work rather than by writing a cheque, and a growing balance is usually good news.

Separating those from actual borrowings is the first thing to do with the total, and it takes one glance at the note.

A breakdown diagram adding a warranty provision and a legal provision to give total provisions. The headline reads: And a provision is an estimate of something not yet settled.
And a provision is an estimate of something not yet settled. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

A provision is an estimate. Warranty costs, legal exposure, restructuring — recognised when an obligation is probable and can be estimated, at an amount the company chooses within a disclosed basis.

A breakdown diagram contrasting obligations carried on the balance sheet with those disclosed only in the notes. The headline reads: A contingent liability is disclosed and not carried.
A contingent liability is disclosed and not carried. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

And a contingent liability is not on the page at all. Possible obligations that depend on a future event — an unresolved lawsuit, a guarantee — appear in the notes with an estimate of the exposure. They are real and they are not in the total.

In practice: the two ratios and the one schedule

A breakdown diagram dividing debt by equity to give a gearing of one times. The headline reads: Debt over equity is the gearing ratio.
Debt over equity is the gearing ratio. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Gearing is debt divided by equity, and it says how much of the business is funded by lenders. It is a level, and levels are only meaningful compared with the same industry.

A breakdown diagram dividing operating income by interest expense to give a cover of six times. The headline reads: And operating earnings over interest is the cover.
And operating earnings over interest is the cover. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Interest cover is operating income divided by interest, and it says how far earnings can fall before the interest bill becomes unpayable. It is a flow measure against a stock measure, and it is the more informative of the two.

A breakdown diagram comparing amounts due within a year against amounts due after five years. The headline reads: The maturity schedule matters more than the total.
The maturity schedule matters more than the total. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

And the maturity schedule beats both. Two companies with identical gearing are in completely different positions if one has debt spread evenly across ten years and the other has half of it maturing in March. The schedule is in the notes, it takes a minute to read, and it is where refinancing risk actually lives.

A breakdown diagram showing a typical bar's range with the round-trip trading cost subtracted. The headline reads: Trading the shares costs two percent of a bar.
Trading the shares costs two percent of a bar. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

And acting on any of it in the market costs 2% of a median bar’s range per round trip on this site’s shared price history.

A worked comparison shows why the total misleads. Two companies each report 1,500 of liabilities against 900 of equity — identical gearing. Company A’s figure is 900 of borrowings and 600 of payables and deferred revenue. Company B’s is 1,400 of borrowings and 100 of payables.

Company A pays interest on 900; Company B pays it on 1,400, and at 6% that is a difference of 30 a year against operating income of 150 — a fifth of the profit, invisible in the headline gearing ratio. Splitting the total into interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing takes one glance at the note, and it changes what the same gearing figure means on two different companies.

What liabilities are not

They are not all debt. Payables, accruals and deferred revenue carry no interest.

They are not all bad. Cheap or free funding is an advantage.

They are not complete. Contingent obligations are disclosed rather than carried.

And the total is not the risk. Timing is.

When it fails

The failure that matters is refinancing. A company with comfortable gearing, healthy interest cover and a large maturity in a quarter when credit is unavailable is in immediate difficulty, and every ratio on this page looked fine the week before.

The second failure is netting debt against cash without checking where the cash is. Net debt assumes the cash is available; cash held in a subsidiary in another jurisdiction may not be.

A third is ignoring covenants. Loan agreements contain conditions — ratios that must be maintained — and breaching one can make long-term debt immediately repayable.

A fourth is treating a provision as a certainty. It is the company’s estimate of an obligation that has not been settled, and estimates are revised.

And a fifth is missing the contingent items. The largest exposure a company faces is sometimes the one described in a paragraph rather than carried as a number.

The original data

Of the 31,760 trading and investing videos in this site’s corpus, 3 have “balance sheet” in the title at a median of 23,862 views. “Cash flow” returns 17 at a median of 67,134, and “income statement” returns 0. The relative strength index (“RSI”) returns 844 at a median of 3,907. The counts are in research/corpus-coverage.json, produced by site/measure_corpus.py.

A breakdown diagram comparing debt maturing soon against cash available. The headline reads: Gearing is one times and half the debt matures in March. Safe?
Gearing is one times and half the debt matures in March. Safe? Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Three videos on the balance sheet in a corpus of 31,760, each earning six times the median views of the 844 on one oscillator. The specific consequence for this page is that the maturity schedule — the note that decides whether a company’s debt is comfortable or urgent — is essentially undiscussed in the material a search will surface. It is one table, in every annual report, and reading it takes a minute — which makes it about the highest ratio of insight to effort available anywhere in a set of accounts.

Balance sheet is the page this side sits on. Current liabilities is what falls due within a year. And long-term liabilities is where the maturity schedule lives.

What I actually do

I used to read total debt and stop. What changed was a company I owned with modest gearing and half its borrowings maturing in one quarter - the total said comfortable and the schedule said otherwise, and only one of them was in the summary I had read.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.