WhitmanTrading

Annuities

An annuity converts a lump sum into a stream of income, usually for life, by transferring longevity risk to an insurer. It is insurance rather than an investment, which is why comparing its return to a portfolio's return answers the wrong question.

An annuity answers one question: what if I live a very long time. It answers it by moving that risk to an insurer, and everything difficult about the product follows from what you hand over to make that transfer.

How it works

A candlestick chart with a lump sum converted to a steady stream.
Capital in, income out, usually for life. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

You pay a lump sum to an insurer and receive a defined payment at intervals, generally until you die. Some contracts pay for a fixed term instead.

The first half of a price series with a fixed floor established.
The payment is set at purchase and does not depend on markets. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The payment does not depend on what markets do afterwards in the simplest version. That independence is the product — a floor under your spending that a portfolio cannot provide.

A section of the price series where capital is exchanged away.
And the capital is generally no longer yours. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The capital is usually gone. It has bought a stream of payments, and there is no balance to leave to anyone unless the contract specifically provides for it — which costs a lower payment.

It is insurance

A window of price bars extending far beyond an expectation.
The risk being transferred is living a long time. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A portfolio can be exhausted and an annuity cannot. That is not a small difference: it is the difference between a plan that has a failure mode and one that does not.

The insurer can offer this because it pools many people. Some die early and subsidise those who live long, which is exactly how every insurance product works and is the reason the payment can exceed what a safe portfolio would sustainably produce.

Which is why comparing the implied return to an index answers the wrong question. You are not buying a return; you are buying the removal of a specific risk.

A worked example

The second half of a price series with a portfolio drawdown path.
The alternative is drawing from capital you keep. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Take 60,000 a year of desired spending.

At a 4% withdrawal rate, funding it from a portfolio requires 1,500,000 in capital, and that portfolio remains yours, can grow, can be inherited, and can also run out.

An annuity funding the same spending typically requires less capital, because the pool absorbs longevity risk — and none of the capital remains yours.

Those are two genuinely different products for the same spending. The workings on the portfolio side are in the retirement number calculator.

Inflation is the input people miss

A candlestick series losing purchasing power over decades.
A level payment shrinks in real terms every year. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A level annuity pays the same number for life, which at 3% inflation buys about half as much after twenty-three years.

Inflation-linked versions exist and start substantially lower. Pricing both and comparing them over a realistic horizon is the single most useful exercise available before buying.

Rates at the moment of purchase set the payment permanently, which makes timing matter in a way it does not for most products — and makes staggering purchases across years a reasonable response.

Where cost hides

A long-horizon candlestick view with layered deductions.
Complex contracts carry layered charges. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A simple immediate annuity has its cost embedded in the payment rate and is comparable between providers by quoting several.

Variable and indexed contracts are different animals, with mortality and expense charges, fund fees, rider fees and surrender periods stacking on top of one another. Complexity is where the cost lives, and the comparison between two such contracts is genuinely hard.

Surrender charges are worth reading before signing. Exiting early is often expensive by design.

A candlestick chart annotated with the round-trip cost of a switch.
And this is a decision that cannot be reversed cheaply. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Every other decision on this site can be undone for the cost of a spread. On this site’s shared series a round trip measures about 2% of the median bar range of 0.493. An annuity purchase is generally not reversible at all, which is the reason to be slower about it than about anything else.

The original data

Of the 24,971 unique videos in research/search-study-corpus.jsonl, 2 have a title about annuities, at a median of 430,119 views — and 0% use beginner-shaped language. Pensions appear in 5 at 156,559 and withdrawal strategies in 2 at 240,335. The counts come from site/rank_investing.py.

Price bars with planned entries across a stretch.
Two videos, and a very large audience for them. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Two videos at a 430,119 median. Retirement income subjects consistently show this shape on this site — enormous attention, almost no instructional supply — and annuities are the extreme case.

A candlestick series with several gaps, the largest of them marked.
The payment does not gap, which is the point. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The insurer’s promise is only as good as the insurer, which is the one risk the product does not remove. Guarantee schemes exist in several jurisdictions and have limits worth knowing before committing a large sum to a single provider.

A stretch of price bars cut short at a decision point.
The market is falling. Annuitise everything now? Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The answer to the question on that chart is that annuitising everything removes the failure mode and removes the flexibility with it. A partial purchase — enough to cover essential spending, with the rest left invested — keeps both. The decision is rarely all or nothing and it is usually presented as though it were.

When it fails

The regret case is a large single purchase made at one moment, and it is difficult to see coming. Rates were what they were on that day, inflation protection looked expensive so a level payment was chosen, and the capital is no longer available for a medical cost, a family need, or a change of circumstances fifteen years later. Nothing about the product malfunctioned. The purchaser bought exactly what was described and lost every option they had before signing.

The second failure is buying a complex contract for a simple need. Layered charges are hard to compare and easy to under-notice.

A third is choosing a level payment without pricing the linked one. Inflation does the damage slowly.

A fourth is concentrating with a single insurer. The promise is only as good as the promiser.

A fifth is comparing the implied return to an index. It is insurance and it will lose that comparison.

And a sixth is committing everything at once. Staggering purchases spreads the rate risk.

Withdrawal strategy is the alternative where you keep the capital and carry the risk. Pension is often an annuity by another name. And social security is an inflation-linked one you already hold.

What I actually do

The framing that finally made it click was to stop comparing it to a portfolio. A portfolio can run out and an annuity cannot, and that is the entire product. Whether it is worth buying depends on how much a floor under your spending is worth to you, not on whether the implied return beats an index — which it will not, and is not trying to.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.