WhitmanTrading

Nasdaq 100: Not a Technology Index

The Nasdaq 100 holds the hundred largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, weighted by market value. It is neither the Nasdaq Composite, which holds thousands, nor a technology index by definition - though its weighting makes it behave like one.

How it works

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history. The headline on the chart reads: The hundred largest non-financial companies on one exchange.
The hundred largest non-financial companies on one exchange. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The rule is exchange, size and one exclusion. The hundred largest companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, excluding financial companies, weighted by market value.

A gently rising stretch of the long price series with an account equity curve beneath it. The headline on the chart reads: It is not the Nasdaq Composite, which holds thousands.
It is not the Nasdaq Composite, which holds thousands. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

It is not the Nasdaq Composite. That index holds every company on the exchange — thousands of them, including a long tail of very small ones — and the two are quoted interchangeably in headlines despite behaving differently.

A calmly advancing stretch of the long price series with an account curve breaching its limit. The headline on the chart reads: It is not a technology index either, by definition.
It is not a technology index either, by definition. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Nothing in the rule mentions technology. It contains retailers, drink manufacturers, biotechnology firms and transport companies, because the criterion is where a company listed rather than what it does.

What the weighting does

A flat, quiet stretch of the long price series with a slowly rising equity curve beneath it. The headline on the chart reads: But weighting by size makes it one in practice.
But weighting by size makes it one in practice. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Size weighting produces the technology character. The largest Nasdaq-listed companies happen to be technology companies, so weighting by market value concentrates the index there regardless of the rule.

A strongly rising stretch of the long price series with a gradually rising equity curve beneath it. The headline on the chart reads: A handful of names drive most of the movement.
A handful of names drive most of the movement. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A small number of companies account for most of the movement. Holding a hundred names is not holding a hundred equal positions, and the daily move is largely a weighted average of the largest few.

A choppy, directionless stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: And a special rule caps them when they get too large.
And a special rule caps them when they get too large. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A capping rule exists precisely because of that. When the largest holdings exceed defined thresholds the index is rebalanced to reduce them, which is an admission that pure size weighting produces a concentration the index provider is uncomfortable with.

A declining stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: It moves further than a broad index, both ways.
It moves further than a broad index, both ways. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

It is more volatile than a broad market index. Fewer companies, one exchange, no financials and a concentrated top end all push in the same direction. That extra movement is not extra return — it is extra variability, and it needs a correspondingly smaller position.

In practice

A 72-bar candlestick section of the shared price history with an account curve shown with and without fees. The headline on the chart reads: The cheapest trackers charge single-digit basis points.
The cheapest trackers charge single-digit basis points. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Trackers for it are cheap and widely available. The competition among providers has pushed fees on major index products into single-digit basis points, which is a genuine improvement for holders.

A candlestick chart with a volume histogram beneath it, with the volume histogram emphasised. The headline on the chart reads: Its futures are among the most traded instruments anywhere.
Its futures are among the most traded instruments anywhere. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Its futures carry enormous volume. That means tight spreads and deep liquidity for traders, and it is why the index appears constantly in day-trading material.

A long-horizon candlestick view of the same price series. The headline on the chart reads: On a decade view the concentration is the whole story.
On a decade view the concentration is the whole story. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Over a decade the concentration explains most of the record. A period in which the largest technology companies did exceptionally well is a period in which this index did exceptionally well, and the two facts are the same fact.

A candlestick series containing several opening gaps, with the largest opening gap marked. The headline on the chart reads: And it gaps on earnings from five companies.
And it gaps on earnings from five companies. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Earnings season is concentrated risk. A gap in the whole index can come from one company’s results, which is single-stock risk arriving through an index position.

A declining stretch of the long price series, with the entry price and the level at which a stop would trigger drawn as horizontal lines. The headline on the chart reads: A stop in the futures fills at whatever the open gives.
A stop in the futures fills at whatever the open gives. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A stop in the futures offers no gap protection. The contract trades nearly around the clock, and the largest moves still arrive as jumps rather than as a slide through your level.

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history, annotated with the round-trip cost. The headline on the chart reads: Every round trip costs a share of a bar.
Every round trip costs a share of a bar. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Trading costs apply as they do anywhere. 2% of a median bar’s range per round trip on this history, and the index’s larger swings do not reduce that share.

One structural feature separates it from every broad index and it is easy to miss: the exclusion of financial companies. Banks, insurers and asset managers are absent by rule, which removes an entire sector that behaves differently from the rest of the market — it tends to do well when interest rates rise, which is often when technology does badly.

So the index has no internal counterweight to its largest exposure. A broad market index holds banks alongside technology and the two partially offset; this one holds the technology and not the offset. That is the substantive reason it moves further in both directions, and it is a construction decision rather than a market condition.

What the Nasdaq 100 is not

It is not the Nasdaq Composite. Different index, different construction.

It is not a technology index by rule. It is one by weighting.

It is not diversified by holding count. A few names dominate.

And it is not a US market index. One exchange, no financials.

When it fails as a proxy

Using it as “the market” produces a distorted reading. No financial companies, one exchange and a concentrated top end make it a specific slice, and days when it diverges sharply from a broad index are days when the difference is the story.

A second failure is treating its record as evidence about indices generally. Its history is a history of one group of companies during one favourable period.

A third is holding it alongside a broad fund without checking. The overlap is substantial and the largest positions are the same ones.

A fourth is sizing it like a broad index. More volatility for the same money is more risk.

And a fifth is ignoring what the capping rule implies. An index that has to be rebalanced to limit its largest holdings is telling you something about its own construction.

The original data

Of the 31,760 trading and investing videos in this site’s corpus, 62 have “nasdaq” in the title at a median of 4,718 views across 42 channels. “S&P 500” returns 42 at a median of 9,664 across 32 channels, “dow jones” returns 6 at a median of 6,250, and “index fund” returns 30 at a median of 74,230. The counts are in research/corpus-coverage.json, produced by site/measure_corpus.py.

A 72-bar window of the shared price history, cut short at the decision bar. The headline on the chart reads: Five stocks are 40% of it. Still diversified?
Five stocks are 40% of it. Still diversified? Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Sixty-two videos at a median of 4,718 views against thirty index-fund videos at 74,230 is the pattern worth noting. Twice as much material about trading this index reaches a sixteenth of the audience per video — the demand is for the boring long-term holding and the supply is concentrated on the exciting short-term instrument. Before buying it, look up the current top-ten weight, because that single figure tells you more about what you are holding than the name does.

Index funds explains weighting and what a holding count really means. Nasdaq trading covers trading the index and its futures. And Dow Jones is the other headline index and its very different construction.

What I actually do

The thing worth knowing before trading it is that you are trading a small number of companies with a hundred names attached. When five of them report in the same fortnight, that fortnight is the index, and the other ninety-five are decoration.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.