WhitmanTrading

Ethereum: A Network That Runs Code

Ethereum is a network that executes programs as well as recording transfers, with every operation paid for in its own coin. That fee mechanism is what connects how much the network is used to how much demand there is for the coin.

How it works

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history. The headline on the chart reads: A network that runs programs, with a coin attached.
A network that runs programs, with a coin attached. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The network executes code as well as recording balances. Programs deployed to it run identically on every participating computer, which is what the phrase “smart contract” describes.

A gently rising stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: Bitcoin is a ledger; this one also executes code.
Bitcoin is a ledger; this one also executes code. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

That is the whole difference from Bitcoin. One records who owns what; this one records that and also runs arbitrary logic — lending arrangements, exchanges and token issuance among them.

A calmly advancing stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: Every operation costs a fee paid in the coin.
Every operation costs a fee paid in the coin. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Every operation is metered and paid for in the coin. More computation means a larger fee, and the fee rises when demand for block space rises — a pricing mechanism rather than a fixed charge.

A choppy, directionless stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: So network use and coin demand are the same thing.
So network use and coin demand are the same thing. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Which links usage to the coin directly. Anybody wanting to do anything on the network needs the coin to pay for it, so activity creates demand in a way that has no equivalent in a pure ledger. Fees paid is the closest thing to a usage metric this asset class has.

What changed, and what moved

A flat, quiet stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: It settles blocks by deposit now, not by electricity.
It settles blocks by deposit now, not by electricity. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Block production moved from computation to deposits. Participants lock up coins rather than spending electricity, which removed the mining economics from the network entirely.

A strongly rising stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: Which means holding it can produce a yield.
Which means holding it can produce a yield. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

That created a yield. Coins committed to securing the network earn a return, which makes holding it structurally different from holding an asset that produces nothing — and introduces a set of risks around who is doing the committing on your behalf.

A declining stretch of the long price series. The headline on the chart reads: And most activity has moved to networks built on top.
And most activity has moved to networks built on top. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Most transactions now happen on networks built above it. Those settle back to the main network in batches, which reduces fees per transaction and moves a large part of the activity — and its fees — one layer away.

In practice

A candlestick chart with a volume histogram beneath it, with the volume histogram emphasised. The headline on the chart reads: Participation is the only direct measure of use.
Participation is the only direct measure of use. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Volume and fees are the measurable things. Active addresses and total fees paid are public and continuous, which is more than most assets offer.

A long-horizon candlestick view of the same price series. The headline on the chart reads: On a long view it moves with the whole asset class.
On a long view it moves with the whole asset class. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Price correlation with the rest of the asset class is high. Whatever the usage figures say, the coin mostly moves with the sector — which limits how much of the fundamental analysis translates into a trade.

A candlestick series containing several opening gaps, with the largest opening gap marked. The headline on the chart reads: It trades all week, so the gaps are jumps rather than opens.
It trades all week, so the gaps are jumps rather than opens. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

There is no market close, so a gap is a jump. Moves happen at any hour, including the ones when almost nobody is quoting.

A declining stretch of the long price series, with the entry price and the level at which a stop would trigger drawn as horizontal lines. The headline on the chart reads: And a stop in a thin hour fills a long way away.
And a stop in a thin hour fills a long way away. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

A stop triggered at three in the morning fills into a thin book. Continuous trading is not the same as continuous liquidity.

A candlestick chart of the site's shared price history, annotated with the round-trip cost. The headline on the chart reads: Every round trip costs a share of a bar.
Every round trip costs a share of a bar. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Trading costs apply as anywhere. 2% of a median bar’s range per round trip on this site’s shared history, before any network fee for moving the coin itself.

A 72-bar candlestick section of the shared price history. The headline on the chart reads: The order book thins out at night and at weekends.
The order book thins out at night and at weekends. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

The book is thinnest when Western markets are closed. Which is when several of the largest historical moves in this asset class have happened.

One property makes the coin genuinely unusual among assets in this class: part of the supply is destroyed by use. A portion of every fee paid is removed from circulation permanently rather than passed to whoever produced the block, which means heavy network activity reduces the number of coins in existence.

That creates a link between usage and supply, not only between usage and demand. In busy periods the supply can shrink; in quiet ones it grows slowly through the staking rewards. It is the closest thing in the asset class to a mechanical connection between what a network does and what its coin is worth, and it is measurable rather than argued.

Whether it matters to the price is a separate question and the honest answer is that it has not obviously done so. The supply effect is small relative to the price swings, and correlation with the rest of the sector dominates over any period worth measuring. Understand the mechanism and do not build a position on it — it is a reason the asset is interesting rather than a reason it will rise.

What Ethereum is not

It is not Bitcoin with extra features. Different design goal.

It is not a company. There is no revenue and no equity.

It is not free to use. Every operation is metered.

And it is not where most transactions now happen. They moved up a layer.

When it fails as an analysis

A sideways, range-bound candlestick series. The headline on the chart reads: In a range the fees are the only thing that happens.
In a range the fees are the only thing that happens. Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Usage and price can move apart for years. Fees at a record with a flat price is a common combination, which means the usage metric — the best fundamental data available here — is not a trading signal.

A second failure is treating the yield as free. It comes with lock-up conditions, penalties for misbehaviour and, where a third party stakes on your behalf, a counterparty.

A third is analysing the network and trading the coin. They are related and they are not the same instrument.

A fourth is ignoring the layer above. Activity moving off the main network changes where the fees are earned.

And a fifth is assuming continuous markets mean continuous liquidity. They do not, and stops discover that first.

The original data

Of the 31,760 trading and investing videos in this site’s corpus, 17 have “ethereum” in the title at a median of 13,212 views across 13 channels, with a maximum of 473,094. “Wallet” returns 34 at a median of 22,808, “mining” returns 29 at a median of 29,025, and “crypto futures” returns 5 at a median of 190,092. The counts are in research/corpus-coverage.json, produced by site/measure_corpus.py.

A gently rising stretch of the long price series, cut short at the decision bar. The headline on the chart reads: Fees are at a record and the price is flat. Bullish?
Fees are at a record and the price is flat. Bullish? Illustrative chart - not real market data.

Seventeen videos at a median of 13,212 views is modest coverage of the second-largest asset in the class, and well below the crypto futures figure of 190,092 — attention follows leverage rather than fundamentals here, as it does everywhere else. The one genuinely useful habit is checking fees paid and active addresses before forming a view: they are public, continuous and free, and almost nobody looks at them.

Crypto is the wider asset class. Bitcoin is the ledger-only comparison. And crypto futures is where most of the trading volume actually is.

What I actually do

The distinction that matters to me as a trader is that this has a usage metric. Fees paid is a number I can look at, and it is the closest thing to a revenue line anything in this asset class has. Whether the price follows it is a separate question, and at least the question is answerable.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.