Central Banks: Four Policy Rates From 2020 to 2026, Dated
A central bank is the public institution that issues a currency and sets the short-term interest rate for it, the rate every other borrowing cost in that currency starts from. The four most watched are the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
Every central bank publishes the history of its own policy rate, but each one publishes a different rate, in a different format, dated in its own way. Put side by side, the four records show that the world’s main central banks did not move together between 2020 and 2026, and in 2026 three of them were raising rates while the fourth held. This page lines the four up from their own pages.
How it works
A central bank sets one short rate and lets the rest follow. It does not fix mortgage rates or bond yields directly. It fixes the price of overnight money between banks, and every longer or riskier interest rate in that currency is priced as a spread over it, which is why a quarter-point decision reaches car loans, corporate bonds and stock valuations.
It moves that rate to steer inflation. Raising it makes borrowing dearer and holding cash more rewarding, which slows spending; cutting does the reverse. The inflation page covers what is being steered, and the consumer price index page covers the most quoted US measure of it.
Why markets watch the gap
Markets react to the gap, not the level. By the time a decision arrives, futures and bond prices already carry an expectation of it. A move that matches the expectation often shifts little; a hold when a cut was priced can move more than a cut would have. The yield curve is where those expectations are easiest to read, since short-dated yields sit close to where traders think the policy rate is heading.
Four banks, four different rates
The Federal Reserve sets a range. Its Federal Open Market Committee targets the federal funds rate within a band a quarter point wide, such as 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed’s open market page lists every change by the date it took effect.
The ECB has three rates and steers with one. The deposit facility rate, paid on banks’ overnight deposits at the ECB, is the rate markets follow. Its main refinancing rate sat 0.15 points higher from 18 Sep 2024, at 2.65% against 2.50% on 25 Sep 2026, so quoting “the ECB rate” without saying which one invites a mismatch.
The Bank of England sets one figure, Bank Rate. Its database lists each change by the date it was made, and a change applies from that day.
The Bank of Japan sets a guideline. It “will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around” a stated level, 1.25% in its 18 Sep 2026 statement, effective from 24 Sep 2026. From 16 Feb 2016 until March 2024 its policy rate was negative: minus 0.1%, applied to part of the balances banks held with it.
A worked example
Take a hypothetical $300,000 floating-rate loan whose rate moves one for one with the Fed’s range. Every quarter point is $300,000 x 0.25%, or $750 a year in interest.
- From the 0% to 0.25% range set on 16 Mar 2020 to the 5.25% to 5.50% range from 27 Jul 2023, the range rose 5.25 points. On the loan that is $300,000 x 5.25%, or $15,750 a year more.
- The Fed then cut 1.75 points, to 3.50% to 3.75% from 11 Dec 2025: $5,250 a year less.
- The rise to 3.75% to 4.00% from 17 Sep 2026 added back $750 a year.
The same arithmetic in yen is much smaller. Japan’s rate rose 1.35 points in all, from minus 0.1% to 1.25%, which on the equivalent of the same loan is about $4,050 a year. Real loans reprice on their own schedules and carry their own margins, so the example isolates the policy rate and nothing else.
The original data
The data: every policy-rate change from 1 Jan 2020 to 25 Sep 2026 for all four banks, read from each bank’s own record on 25 Sep 2026 (the Fed’s open market page, the ECB Data Portal, the Bank of England database and the Bank of Japan’s statements). Dates are the day each change took effect. The combined list is published as a CSV of the policy-rate changes.
The starts were staggered by more than two years. The Bank of England moved first, from 0.10% to 0.25% on 16 Dec 2021. The Fed followed on 17 Mar 2022, the ECB on 27 Jul 2022, when its deposit rate went from minus 0.5% to zero, and the Bank of Japan only on 21 Mar 2024, when it left negative rates behind.
The peaks and the time spent there differed too. The Fed held 5.25% to 5.50% from 27 Jul 2023 until 19 Sep 2024, 420 days. The Bank of England held 5.25% from 3 Aug 2023 to 1 Aug 2024, 364 days. The ECB held 4.00% from 20 Sep 2023 to 12 Jun 2024, 266 days, and was the first of the three to cut.
Counting every change since 1 Jan 2020: the Fed made 12 increases and 8 cuts, the ECB 12 and 8, the Bank of England 14 and 8, and the Bank of Japan 6 increases and no cuts.
2026 brought rises from three of them. For the Fed and the ECB that reversed the cuts of 2024 and 2025; for the Bank of Japan it continued a climb that began in 2024.
The ECB’s deposit rate rose to 2.25% from 17 Jun 2026 and to 2.50% from 16 Sep. The Bank of Japan went to 1.0% from 17 Jun and 1.25% from 24 Sep. The Fed raised its range to 3.75% to 4.00% from 17 Sep 2026. The Bank of England’s 3.75%, in force since 18 Dec 2025, was unchanged. On 25 Sep 2026 the gap between the top of the Fed’s range and the ECB deposit rate was 1.25 to 1.50 points, depending on which end of the range is used.
When it fails
Treating the four banks as one fails. The record above shows starts spread from December 2021 to March 2024 and opposite directions in 2025, when the Bank of Japan was raising while the other three were cutting. A reading of “global rates” hides exactly the differences that move currencies such as USD/JPY.
Treating the decision as the news fails. When a move is fully expected it is already in prices, and the statement, projections and press conference carry the surprise. The Fed decision walkthrough sets out that sequence.
Comparing mismatched rates fails quietly. The Fed publishes a range, the ECB three rates, the Bank of Japan a guideline “around” a level. Quoting the ECB’s 2.65% main refinancing rate against the Fed’s lower bound gives a different gap from the 2.50% deposit rate against the upper bound.
Mixing announcement and effective dates fails. The Bank of Japan decided on 18 Sep 2026 and the rate applied from 24 Sep. The Fed and ECB also list the date the new rate took effect, which is usually a day or several days after the meeting. A backtest that lines prices up against the wrong date measures nothing.
And the rate is not the whole policy. Central banks also buy and sell bonds and guide expectations in words. A hold can tighten conditions if it comes with a harder message, and no policy-rate table shows that.
Related
The interest rate page explains why a change in the short rate reprices everything that pays later. The yield curve shows how markets price where these rates are heading, and inflation covers the target they are set against. For the day itself, how to trade a Fed decision walks through the announcement, the projections and the press conference in order.
Before any central bank day, write down the rate the market expects and the rate in force now. The decision is usually the least surprising part; I plan around the gap between those two numbers and the words that come with it, not the headline.
— Michael Whitman
This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.