WhitmanTrading

Cash Flow Statement: Where the Money Went

The cash flow statement records the money that moved during a period, split into operating, investing and financing activities. It reconciles reported net income to actual cash, and the size and direction of that reconciliation is the most informative thing in a set of accounts.

How it works

A labelled breakdown diagram showing operating, investing and financing cash flows adding to the change in cash. The headline reads: Where the money actually went.
Where the money actually went. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Three sections. Operating covers the trading business. Investing covers buying and selling long-lived assets. Financing covers borrowing, repaying, issuing shares and paying dividends. Together they explain the change in the cash balance.

A breakdown diagram contrasting operating cash flow with the combined investing and financing figures. The headline reads: Three sections, and the first one is the one that matters.
Three sections, and the first one is the one that matters. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Operating cash flow is the section that describes whether the business works. Investing tells you what it is spending on the future; financing tells you where the money came from. A company can look healthy on either of the last two for years while the first one is negative.

The reconciliation is the reading

A breakdown diagram starting at net income, adding depreciation and working capital movements to reach operating cash flow. The headline reads: It starts at net income and reconciles to cash.
It starts at net income and reconciles to cash. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

The indirect method starts at net income and adjusts. Depreciation is added back because it was never paid. Movements in receivables, payables and inventory are added or subtracted because they are the difference between recognising a transaction and settling it.

A breakdown diagram comparing net income with operating cash flow and the difference between them. The headline reads: The gap between profit and cash is the whole reading.
The gap between profit and cash is the whole reading. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Cash comfortably above profit is the normal, healthy shape for an established company, because depreciation is a large non-cash charge and working capital is stable.

A breakdown diagram showing net income well above operating cash flow. The headline reads: And when it runs the other way it is a warning.
And when it runs the other way it is a warning. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Cash persistently below profit is the pattern to stop on. It means reported earnings are being absorbed by receivables the company has not collected or inventory it has not sold — profit that has not become money and may not.

One quarter of that is timing. Four quarters of it is a description of the business.

Free cash flow

A breakdown diagram subtracting capital spending from operating cash flow to give free cash flow. The headline reads: Operating cash less capital spending is free cash flow.
Operating cash less capital spending is free cash flow. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Operating cash flow minus capital spending is what is genuinely left over. It is the money available for dividends, buybacks, debt repayment or acquisitions after the business has been kept running.

It is also exactly what EBITDA omits. That measure adds depreciation back and stops; free cash flow subtracts the spending depreciation was standing in for. The difference between the two is usually the most important number nobody quotes.

In practice: a worked reconciliation

Take net income of 95. Add depreciation of 45 — no cash left the business for it. Now suppose receivables rose by 30 and inventory by 20, while payables rose by 50. Working capital consumed 30 and provided 50, a net contribution of nothing.

Operating cash flow is 140 against profit of 95 — the healthy shape. Now change one number: receivables rise by 110 instead of 30. Operating cash flow becomes 60 against the same 95 of profit, and every other statement in the accounts is unchanged.

That single line moved the company from generating cash to consuming it, and it appears on the balance sheet as a larger receivables balance and on the income statement not at all.

A breakdown diagram showing operating cash flow improved by paying suppliers later. The headline reads: It is the hardest statement to flatter, and not impossible.
It is the hardest statement to flatter, and not impossible. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

It is the hardest of the three to manipulate and it is not immune. Paying suppliers later improves operating cash flow; so does selling receivables to a bank, or classifying a payment as investing rather than operating. All are disclosed somewhere, and none is visible in the headline figure.

A breakdown diagram showing a typical bar's range with the round-trip trading cost subtracted. The headline reads: And trading the shares costs two percent of a bar.
And trading the shares costs two percent of a bar. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

And acting on any of it in the market costs 2% of a median bar’s range per round trip on this site’s shared price history.

The other two sections deserve one pass each. Investing cash flow is dominated by capital spending, and the comparison worth making is against depreciation: spending consistently above the charge means the company is either growing or replacing assets at higher prices than it recorded them at. Spending consistently below it means the asset base is being run down, which raises profit now and costs later.

Financing cash flow says who is funding the difference. A company whose operating cash flow does not cover its capital spending is making up the shortfall by borrowing or by issuing shares, and this section shows which. Several consecutive years of that pattern is the single clearest picture of a business consuming capital rather than producing it — and it is three lines, side by side, in a statement that takes a minute to read.

What the cash flow statement is not

It is not the income statement restated. It is a different measurement of the same period.

It is not immune to presentation choices. Classification between sections is disclosed and chosen.

It is not a measure of profitability. A company can generate cash by shrinking.

And it is not EBITDA. That excludes the capital spending this records.

When it fails

A breakdown diagram showing reported profit alongside cash burned during the same period. The headline reads: A growing company can burn cash while reporting profit.
A growing company can burn cash while reporting profit. Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Growth consumes cash, and fast growth consumes a lot of it. A company expanding rapidly funds receivables and inventory before it collects, so negative operating cash flow during a growth phase can be entirely healthy — or can be the same picture a failing company produces. The statement shows the number and not the reason.

The second failure is reading one year. Working capital swings; the trend across several years is the signal.

A third is missing the classification. Interest paid appears in different sections under different standards, which affects operating cash flow directly.

A fourth is treating free cash flow as distributable. Maintenance and growth capital spending are lumped together, and only one of them is optional.

And a fifth is ignoring it because profit looks fine. That is the specific failure the statement exists to prevent.

The original data

Of the 31,760 trading and investing videos in this site’s corpus, 17 have “cash flow” in the title, at a median of 67,134 views — the highest median of any fundamentals term measured. “Free cash flow” returns 0. “Accounting” returns 3 videos at a median of 87,646. The relative strength index (“RSI”) returns 844 at a median of 3,907. The counts are in research/corpus-coverage.json, produced by site/measure_corpus.py.

A breakdown diagram comparing a rise in profit against a larger rise in receivables. The headline reads: Profit up thirty percent, operating cash down. Why?
Profit up thirty percent, operating cash down. Why? Illustrative figures - not a real company.

Seventeen videos at seventeen times the median views of 844 videos on one oscillator. That is the starkest ratio in the whole corpus, and it is about the statement that most reliably distinguishes a company that is working from one that is not. The check it enables takes two numbers: net income, and cash from operations, for five consecutive years. If the second is consistently below the first, the profit being reported is not turning into money — and that comparison is available for every listed company for free, and is essentially undiscussed in the material anyone will find first.

Income statement is the accrual statement this reconciles. Balance sheet holds the receivables and inventory that create the gap. And EBITDA is the measure that adds depreciation back without subtracting what replaced it.

What I actually do

This is the statement I read first now, and the reason is simple: profit is an opinion assembled from estimates and cash is a fact. When the two disagree for more than a quarter or two, the cash number has been right far more often in my experience than the profit number.

— Michael Whitman

This page is educational, not financial advice. Test every idea on your own charts before risking money.